Property industry delivers verdict on new UK house price data

Marketing No Comments

Property prices in the UK rose for the third consecutive month in December 2023, according to the latest Halifax HPI data. The cost of an average UK home rose to […]

Read More

Property prices in the UK rose for the third consecutive month in December 2023, according to the latest Halifax HPI data.

The cost of an average UK home rose to £287,105, up £3,066 (+1.1%) from November, reaching the highest level since March 2023.

According to Halifax, this means the housing market beat expectations in 2023 and grew by 1.7% on an annual basis.

The average property price is now £4,800 higher than it was in December 2022.

Kim Kinnaird, director for Halifax Mortgages, said: “Whilst it’s encouraging that we saw growth in the last three months of the year, this was preceded with property price falls for six consecutive months between April and September.

“The growth we have seen is likely being driven by a shortage of properties on the market, rather than the strength of buyer demand. That said, with mortgage rates continuing to ease, we may see an increase in confidence from buyers over the coming months.”

Across all the UK regions, Northern Ireland recorded the strongest house price growth in 2023, with properties increasing by 4.1% to £192,153. Scotland saw property prices rise by 2.6% to £205,170.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

At the other end of the scale, the South East fell most sharply, with houses there now averaging £376,804, down by £17,755 (-4.5%).

Kinnaird said: “As we move through 2024, the UK property market will continue to reflect the wider economic uncertainty and buyers and sellers are likely to be naturally cautious when considering making a move.

“While wage growth is now above inflation, helping to ease cost of living pressures for some and improving housing affordability, interest rates are likely to remain elevated for as long as inflation remains markedly above the Bank of England’s target.

“Our latest forecast suggests house prices could fall between 2% and 4% during the coming year, although, as with recent years, forecast uncertainty remains high given the current economic climate.”

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

More reaction

Anthony Codling, managing director, equity research, RBC Capital Markets, said: “The demise of the UK housing market is somewhat over reported. Most, including us, thought house prices would fall during 2023, and most think they will fall in 2024, but not us.

“With rising wages, falling inflation, falling mortgage rates, and increasing talk of election-related housing stimulus packages, we expect house prices to rise in 2024. Our pessimism was misplaced in 2023, and we don’t want to make the same mistake twice.”

For full article follow link below

Source: Property Industry Eye

By Jerome Smail

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

The Future of the UK Property Market: Analysing Interest Rates in 2024 

Marketing No Comments

Introduction  The UK property market has always been a significant focus for investors, homeowners, and renters alike. As we look ahead to the year 2024, one crucial factor that will […]

Read More

Introduction 

The UK property market has always been a significant focus for investors, homeowners, and renters alike. As we look ahead to the year 2024, one crucial factor that will shape the market is interest rates. In this blog post, we will delve into the potential impact of interest rates on the UK property market, exploring the key factors driving their movement and what this might mean for buyers, sellers, and investors. 

Understanding Interest Rates 

Before we discuss the future of interest rates, it’s important to grasp their significance in the property market. Interest rates are set by the Bank of England to control inflation and influence economic growth. When interest rates are low, borrowing becomes cheaper, leading to increased demand in the property market. Conversely, high interest rates can deter potential buyers due to increased mortgage costs. Therefore, fluctuations in interest rates can significantly impact the property market’s dynamics. 

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

Factors Influencing Interest Rates 

Several factors influence interest rates, and understanding these can help predict their movement in 2024. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) considers various economic indicators, such as inflation, GDP growth, and employment rates. Additionally, external factors like global economic conditions and political events can also affect interest rates. As we approach 2024, the Committee will closely monitor these indicators and adjust rates accordingly. 

UK Mortgage Broker 

The Impact of Interest Rates on Buyers 

Interest rates play a crucial role in determining affordability for potential buyers. In a low-interest-rate environment, mortgage repayments are more manageable, allowing buyers to enter the market and potentially drive up property prices. However, if interest rates rise significantly in 2024, mortgage repayments may become less affordable, leading to reduced demand and potentially stabilizing or lowering property prices. 

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

The Impact of Interest Rates on Sellers 

Higher interest rates can also affect sellers in the property market. If mortgage costs increase, potential buyers may be deterred, leading to a decrease in demand for properties. This could result in longer selling times and potentially lower sale prices. On the other hand, if interest rates remain low or decrease, sellers may benefit from increased demand and potentially higher sale prices. 

The Impact of Interest Rates on Investors 

Interest rates can significantly impact property investors. Low interest rates make borrowing cheaper, allowing investors to finance their purchases more affordably. This can lead to increased investment activity in the property market. However, if interest rates rise, investors may face higher financing costs, potentially reducing their purchasing power and limiting investment opportunities. 

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

BTL Mortgage Broker 

Predictions for 2024 

While it is challenging to predict future interest rates with certainty, experts suggest that interest rates in 2024 will largely depend on economic conditions. If the UK economy experiences strong growth, it is likely that interest rates will gradually rise. Conversely, if economic recovery is slower, interest rates are likely to remain low or even decrease further. The Bank of England will continue to monitor economic indicators and adjust rates accordingly to maintain stability. 

Conclusion 

The future of the UK property market in 2024 will be heavily influenced by interest rates. As buyers, sellers, and investors navigate these market dynamics, it is crucial to stay informed about the factors driving interest rate movements. By understanding the impact of interest rates on affordability, demand, and investment opportunities, individuals can make informed decisions in the dynamic landscape of the UK property market in 2024. 

Savills predicts over 8% annualised returns in eight UK property sectors for 2024

Marketing No Comments

Savills forecasts that eight asset classes in the UK property market are set to achieve annualised returns exceeding 8% for 2024. This includes buy-to-let in the North West, London industrial […]

Read More

Savills forecasts that eight asset classes in the UK property market are set to achieve annualised returns exceeding 8% for 2024.

This includes buy-to-let in the North West, London industrial properties, and retail warehouses, which are expected to be the top performers, with annualised investment returns between 8.5% and 9.2% from 2024-2028.

The upcoming year is seen as an opportune time for commercial investors, as retail, industrial, and office spaces are projected to be more affordable. The private rented sector’s challenges are likely to prompt institutional landlords to focus more on Built to Rent and Purpose Built Student Accommodation.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

Farmland is also identified as a key area, expected to contribute significantly to net zero initiatives. Demand for prime arable land, primarily for food production, is anticipated to remain high, influenced by global events and environmental concerns.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

Richard Merryweather, Savills joint head of UK investment, highlights the positive shift in the market: “The factors that drove falls in UK property values and transaction levels over the last two years are expected to improve in 2024. There will be significant opportunity – especially in the commercial and residential spaces – for investors to buy at the bottom of the market.”

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

In 2024, investment focus is expected to shift to asset-specific basics rather than sector-wide trends. Strategic logistics projects, prime and green office spaces, and certain retail market segments are identified as areas with potential for better than average rental growth. The residential market is also expected to recover, with prospects for growth in mainstream house prices by 2025.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division

By Ryan Fowler

Source: The Intermediary

Falling inflation could boost the housing market – but there’s a catch

Marketing No Comments

A consequence of the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates in order to bring down inflation was always that they could cause the housing market to stall and […]

Read More

A consequence of the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates in order to bring down inflation was always that they could cause the housing market to stall and potentially tip Britain’s economy into recession.

Today, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will feel vindicated in its strategy, with the rate of inflation unexpectedly falling by more than expected to 3.9 per cent. This is its lowest level since September 2021, but still double the Bank’s 2 per cent target.

The MPC will also be glad that while the UK’s economy did shrink in the final quarter of this year, the prospect of a recession (which is where the economy contracts two quarters in a row) remains hypothetical.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

However, the data also show that the MPC’s decision to repeatedly make the cost of borrowing more expensive did indeed stall the housing market.

Both the Bank’s mortgage data and HMRC’s data show that the number of mortgages agreed and the number of homes being sold are lower than they would usually be, indicating that the housing market was grinding to a halt this autumn.

Now, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the year between October 2022 and 2023, UK house prices fell at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

Average house prices declined by 1.2 per cent during that 12-month period. This is the largest drop since October 2011 when the fallout of the 2008 global financial crisis was taking hold.

The greatest falls have been recorded in London (3.6 per cent), which is to be expected because pandemic house price inflation pushed the cost of homes up rapidly in many parts of the capital.

Some estate agents are trying to put a positive spin on this news. National chain Jackson-Stops, for instance, has issued a statement saying that it is a “minimal drop” which shows the market’s “enduring strength”.

That’s not quite the case. Think of interest rate rises as being more like drip filter coffee than espresso – rather than being an economic shot in the arm, they take time to feed through and their effects can be long-lasting, particularly when it comes to the housing market.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

This is because there is a time lag between the Bank’s rate decision, banks setting their mortgage rates, people taking on those rates to buy homes, and the homes that they buy being recorded in the official ONS statistics.

So, just as the true impact of 2008 wasn’t felt until the early 2010s, it won’t be possible to say with any certainty how much house prices have fallen for a little while yet.

The ONS data is the most comprehensive measure of UK house prices because it includes cash purchases. It is also the most accurate but, because the ONS base their records on deals that have been finalised and recorded by the Land Registry, they are less timely than those belonging to lenders such as Halifax and Nationwide.

There is a time lag between what’s actually happening in the housing market and what the ONS records show.

The news that the rate of inflation has come down has already resulted in calls – from the likes of the right-wing think-tank the Institute for Economic Affairs – for the Bank to abandon rate increases.

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

However, as the MPC made clear in the memo they published after deciding to hold the base rate at 5.25 per cent last week, they won’t hesitate to increase it further if there is any indication that inflation is on the up again.

If interest rates come down, it could pump the housing market up once again. Indeed, financial markets are already speculating that the Bank will cut rates next year and this will be priced into the cost of mortgages.

But, if we’ve learned anything over the last four years, it’s that things can turn on a dime.

The rate of inflation may be falling but everything is still more expensive than it was before the pandemic – from food shops to household bills. More than a million people will see their mortgages get more expensive next year.

And, even with mortgage rates at 4 per cent, the cost of having a mortgage will be significantly higher than it was in the ultra-low-rate world we lived in before Covid.

For full article follow link below

I News

Housing Market Activity Could Snowball In December

Marketing No Comments

Research conducted by estate agent comparison site GetAgent.co.uk indicates a potential surge in the UK property market at the end of the year. Analysis of the past decade’s data shows […]

Read More

Research conducted by estate agent comparison site GetAgent.co.uk indicates a potential surge in the UK property market at the end of the year. Analysis of the past decade’s data shows that the number of homes completing in December is typically 6% higher than the average monthly total, belying the common perception of Christmas as a quiet period in the property market.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

GetAgent’s study, which examined property sales data over the last ten years, reveals that December does not generally experience a dip in transaction completions. On average, 83,616 property sales have been completed each month over the past decade. However, in December, this number increases to an average of 88,673, marking a notable rise.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

Colby Short, co-founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, comments on these findings: “Christmas is often considered a bit of a lull period for the property market and this is true in some respects. There’s almost certainly a reduction in the number of motivated buyers and sellers pushing ahead to agree a sale, as plans are put on hold until after the festive break. At the same time, many progressing sales will see a slight delay due to the reduced office hours and staff numbers of estate agents, solicitors, and other required parties. However, for those approaching the home selling and buying finish line, December is business as usual, and market activity has actually sat above the monthly average benchmark over the last decade during the month of December.”

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

For full article follow link below

Landlord Knowledge

By LK

UK house prices rise again as easing of mortgage rates tempts more buyers

Marketing No Comments

UK house prices rose for the second month in a row in November, according to a leading index, as a slight easing in mortgage rates helped coax more buyers into […]

Read More

UK house prices rose for the second month in a row in November, according to a leading index, as a slight easing in mortgage rates helped coax more buyers into the market.

The average price of a UK property rose by £1,394 – or 0.5% – last month to £283,615, according to the mortgage lender Halifax.

It signals an uptick in activity across the housing market, where price growth has stalled over the past year because of an increase in interest rates and subsequent affordability pressures that have driven away otherwise eager buyers.

UK house prices have also been underpinned by a shortage of available properties over the past year, as many sellers wait for the market to normalise and prices to recover.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

On an annual basis, prices are down 1%, although Halifax said this was a “relatively modest” drop given the economic headwinds that have weighed on consumers over the past 12 months. Average house prices are still £40,000 above pre-pandemic levels, having been skewed during the Covid crisis, when people scrambled to buy larger homes.

“Recent figures for mortgage approvals suggest a slight uptick in activity levels, which is likely as a result of an improving picture on affordability for homebuyers,” Kim Kinnaird, the director of Halifax Mortgages, said. “With mortgage rates starting to ease slightly, this may be leading to increased buyer confidence, seeing people more inclined to push ahead with their home purchases.”

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

However, Kinnaird said house prices were unlikely to continue their upward climb into the new year. “The economic conditions remain uncertain, making it hard to assess the extent to which market activity will be maintained. Other pressures – like inflation, the broader cost of living, overall employment rates and affordability – mean we expect to see downward pressure on house prices into next year.”

Northern Ireland has experienced the strongest rise in house prices over the past 12 months, with the average home costing £4,294 more compared with last year, at £184,684.

For full article follow link below

The Guardian

By Kalyeena Makortoff

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

Pandemic property boom adds £1.6tn to England’s housing market

Marketing No Comments

The value of England’s housing market has soared by £1.6tn because of the pandemic property boom, according to new research. Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential […]

Read More

The value of England’s housing market has soared by £1.6tn because of the pandemic property boom, according to new research.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

The research by estate agency Yopa is based on the number and value of dwellings which shows that the average house price has risen by 25% from £248,097 in December 2019 to £390,602 today.

And the number of homes has also increased by 1.9%, or 459,191, in the same period.

This means that the total estimated value of the property market in England has jumped from £6.1tn in 2019 to £7.7tn today, an increase of 27%.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

‘Doom and gloom surrounding the property market’

Yopa’s chief executive, Verona Frankish, said: “With all the current doom and gloom surrounding the property market, it’s quite easy to forget that we’ve just witnessed one of the most sustained periods of house price growth in living memory.

“So, while higher mortgage rates and buyer uncertainty may have dampened the current rate of house price growth, this reduction is just a drop in the ocean compared to the meteoric increases seen since the start of the pandemic property market boom.”

She added: “To think that the bricks and mortar market across England is estimated to be worth £1.6tn more compared to just a few years ago is quite incredible and it really does demonstrate the strength of the property market when viewed on a long-term basis.”

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

The South East has seen the largest jump

The study also found that the South East has seen the largest jump in the total value of the region’s property market, increasing by £311bn or 28% since the start of the pandemic.

London, despite having lower house price growth than other regions, has added £251.3bn or 19% to the value of its property market.

The North East has seen the smallest increase in total market value, but still added £45bn or 24% to the value of its bricks and mortar market.

At the local authority level, Cornwall ranks top, with £24.3bn or 51% added to the value of the Cornish property market because of the pandemic.

Other areas that have seen large increases in the value of their property markets include Buckinghamshire (+£23.4bn or 40%), Birmingham (+£22.2bn or 35%), Leeds (+£21.4bn or 38%) and North Yorkshire (+£20.1bn or 36%).

Source: Property 118

Autumn Statement: ‘Missed opportunity’ for homebuyers and housing market

Marketing No Comments

The Mortgage Guarantee Scheme is to be extended by another year, it was announced in today’s Autumn Statement. It was one of only a few measures mentioned by Chancellor Jeremy […]

Read More

The Mortgage Guarantee Scheme is to be extended by another year, it was announced in today’s Autumn Statement.

It was one of only a few measures mentioned by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt which would benefit homebuyers, homeowners or those grappling with soaring mortgage costs.

The scheme, which aims to help more first-time buyers with small deposits of 5% to 9% to take out a mortgage, will now continue until June 2025. It had been due to end this year.

Under the initiative, the government guarantees mortgages of 95% loan-to-value issued by mortgage lenders. This offsets the risk for the lender of offering such high loans, meaning they can provide these low deposit deals to greater numbers of first-time buyers.

Although this has been welcomed, many mortgage and housing experts were disappointed about the absence of other support for those struggling to pay mortgages following steep rate rises in the last two years and the cost-of-living crisis.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, speaking in response to Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement observed there had been no announcements which would ‘remotely compensate’ for the impact of mortgage hikes and the rising cost of living.

The Chancellor announced he would be cutting National Insurance by 2% to 10% and increasing the National Living Wage to £11.44 per hour from 6 January.

He also said he would be unfreezing Local Housing Allowance, a move which will help low-income renters by giving them a financial boost of £800 a year on average.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

But there was no mention of improvements to the Lifetime ISA savings scheme for first-time buyers nor the Stamp Duty cuts which many had been hoping for.

Sam Mitchell, CEO of Purplebricks, was among those who had been hoping for more to help the housing market in today’s statement.

“By failing to cut stamp duty and cut it permanently, the government has missed an opportunity to set the already fragile housing market on a clear path to recovery,” he said.

“Rumours will now grow that we will see a cut in the spring, meaning decisions on buying and selling will be delayed and the economy will suffer. This has already been a difficult year for the property sector, and the lack of support will threaten a recovery in 2024.”

He added: “Despite this, the silver lining is the confirmation of the extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme. Not only does this support the green shoots we are already seeing in the lending market, but is great news for first time buyers, especially if coupled with the declining rates we are seeing in the market.”

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

We need ‘long-term stability for new homeowners’

But not everyone was convinced the scheme’s extension alone was enough for first-time buyers.

Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, said the extension was the least the government could do. “The scheme has so far not been particularly impactful,” she said, “and will likely continue not to be.

“Generally, first-time buyers will find themselves limited to a maximum of 4.5 times their annual income. For those on the average salary this means they can only borrow just over £150k giving the buyer not much choice in the market.

“Saving for a bigger deposit or raiding the Bank of Mum and Dad can therefore offer more choice. This extension makes little difference today and had Hunt instead opted to simply get rid of it, it likewise wouldn’t have had much impact.”

She added: “While the scheme’s intentions are positive, it’s crucial to implement measures that ensure long-term stability for new homeowners and the housing market.

“This might include more stringent eligibility criteria or additional support mechanisms to safeguard against market fluctuations.”

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

By Kate Saines

Source: What Mortgage

The housing market is booming – if you know where to look

Marketing No Comments

Residential property prices in some parts of Britain have continued to increase strongly over the past year despite the wider housing market slowdown, according to Halifax. More than 300 local […]

Read More

Residential property prices in some parts of Britain have continued to increase strongly over the past year despite the wider housing market slowdown, according to Halifax.

More than 300 local authority areas across Britain were analysed during Q3 2023 based on Halifax’s house price index.

This was compared with Halifax’s house price data covering the corresponding period last year.

The study revealed that house prices rose in more than 70 areas, led by gains in the Brecon Beacons, Powys, in Wales, where house prices rose by an average of 17.4% year-on-year.

Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages, said: “There are multiple factors which can impact house prices in your local area, ranging from the mix of properties available and the extent of any new housing, to the quality of schools and abundance of job opportunities.

“What’s clear is that the UK housing market is not a single entity that performs in a uniform way across the country, there are differences. While at a national level the current squeeze on mortgage affordability has seen property prices fall over the last year, in many regions there remain pockets of house price growth. While a limited supply of properties for sale could be a factor, this also suggests in some areas, local market activity – and demand among buyers – remains strong.

“Many of the places highlighted in our research also benefit from more remote or rural surroundings and incorporate areas of outstanding natural beauty. These are traits which continue to be desirable for prospective homeowners, bucking the trend of the wider performance of the housing market.”

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

Here are the top 10 local areas of Britain with the strongest house price growth over the past year, according to Halifax:

  1. Powys, Wales, £216,307, £253,958, +17.4%, or £37,651
  2. East Lindsey, East Midlands, £194,533, £220,421, +13.3%, or £25,888
  3. Moray, Scotland, £162,258, £179,606, +10.7%, or £17,347
  4. Babergh, Eastern England, £317,383, £349,965, +10.3%, or £32,583
  5. Sunderland, North East, £138,579, £150,862, +8.9%, or £12,283
  6. Ealing, London, £494,100, £531,127, +7.5%, or £37,027
  7. Westminster/City of London, London, £714,242, £767,350, +7.4%, or £53,108
  8. Bolsover, East Midlands, £167,398, £179,453, +7.2%, or £12,054

=9. Cumberland, North West, £165,346, £176,470, + 6.7%, or £11,124

=9. Rossendale, North West, £185,658, £198,102, + 6.7%, or £12,444

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

Here are the local areas with the strongest house price inflation in Scotland, Wales and the English regions over the past year, according to Halifax:

– East Lindsey, East Midlands, £194,533, £220,421, + 13.3%, or £25,888

– Babergh, Eastern England, £317,383, £349,965, + 10.3%, or £32,583

– Ealing, London, £494,100, £531,127, + 7.5%, or £37,027

– Sunderland, North East, £138,579, £150,862, + 8.9%, or £12,283

– Cumberland, North West, £165,346, £176,470, + 6.7%, or £11,124

– Moray, Scotland, £162,258, £179,606, + 10.7%, or £17,347

– Runnymede, South East, £439,825, £462,301, + 5.1%, or £22,476

– Torridge/West Devon, South West, £295,521, £306,436, + 3.7%, or £10,915

– Powys, Wales, £216,307, £253,958, + 17.4%, or £37,651

– Sandwell, West Midlands, £178,755, £185,798, + 3.9%, or £7,043

– Kingston-upon-Hull, Yorkshire and the Humber, £121,289, £127,523, + 5.1%, or £6,234

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

Commenting on the data, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “The UK is made up of tens of thousands of individual housing markets, which means price growth can also diverge between two areas in the same local authority.

“Broadly speaking, more affordable parts of the country are gradually closing the gap with London, where affordability is at its most stretched. The gap will get narrower without closing as buyers look beyond the capital for better value.

“The more important point for anyone interpreting house prices at the moment, is that fewer transactions can distort the data. The underlying health of the housing market is not necessarily gauged by what is happening to house prices but rather transaction volumes, which are down by more than a fifth.”

Nigel Bishop of Recoco Property Search, commented: “An increasing number of house hunters discover the upsides of rural living and favour areas that not only sit within close proximity of parks but also offer a community feel and an array of lifestyle choices.

“It’s particularly city dwellers as well as young families, who wish to raise their children in a more quaint environment, that are driving this demand for properties in a more rural setting. Boutique towns and villages with restaurants, cafés, entertainment as well as sporting facilities are especially sought-after which has resulted in property prices in such locations to go up.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent, added: “These numbers are interesting because they show the pattern of values in different areas and how markets are not the same. There is no real substitute for studying the market and area you are interested in carefully because it may well be in front of ,or behind, the national average or pattern.
“The market is made up of many different micro markets, producing different results, which is why it is so important to do the groundwork. A national average figure should be relied upon as a guide only.
“In any event, we tend to be a bit too fixated on prices. There are other factors also worth taking into consideration such as transaction numbers, discount to asking price and time on the market, as well as supply and demand. From neighbourhood to neighbourhood the picture can alter significantly.”

By Marc Da Silva

Source: Property Industry Eye

UK house prices set to rise by almost 18% in five-year forecast

Marketing No Comments

UK house prices have fared better than expected over this past year, according to new research from Savills, as it reveals its outlook for the next five years. Despite the […]

Read More

UK house prices have fared better than expected over this past year, according to new research from Savills, as it reveals its outlook for the next five years.

Despite the fact that the Bank of England is yet to lower its base rate, instead holding it at 5.25%, the fact that lenders have continued to slash prices and offer new products over recent months has helped to buoy the housing market more than had been anticipated this year.

In its revised outlook for UK house prices, estate agency Savills predicts that next year will be the second and final year of overall property price falls, with a -3% dip by the end of 2024. After this, it expects the market to return to growth for the proceeding years up to 2028.

In numbers, this looks like a 3.5% uptick in UK house prices in 2025, followed by a stronger gain of 5% in 2926, a further hike of 6.5% in 2027, and a 5% rise in 2028. Overall, this equates to a cumulative increase across mainstream residential markets of 17.9% over the next five years.

Get in touch with Mortgage Broker UK today to discuss your residential and Buy to Let Mortgage requirements.

UK house prices and transactions to recover

Much of the current outlook is based on what is expected to happen with interest rates and inflation, which will impact mortgage rates overall. The general consensus is that rates will begin to come down, with the Bank of England expected to bring its base rate down at least by the latter part of 2024.

Mortgage rates have a direct impact on affordability in the property market, and can therefore begin to affect UK house prices and transaction levels. Thankfully, Savills points out that while interest rates have now peaked, so have house price falls in this cycle.

Savills head of research Lucian Cook notes: “The expectation of a gradual reduction in rates suggests a progressive restoration of buying power and steady recovery in demand.

“We expect growth to accelerate as affordability pressures ease, with the strongest growth forecast for 2027 when rates reach their long-term neutral level. From there we expect growth to settle at a rate broadly in line with income growth.”

Transaction levels have undoubtedly suffered in some – but not all – parts of the market, although some of this drop-off in activity can be attributed to a slowdown in relation to the post-Covid boom. Of course, the cost of living crisis and high inflation have also had an impact on this.

Cash buyers have been more active than ever in the current climate, which is unsurprising, and this is another factor conrtibuting towards keeping UK house prices afloat. However, by mid-2024, Savills expects transaction levels to coincide with recovery of UK house prices, as mortgage affordability improves.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division”

North, Wales and Scotland hold their own

According to the report, the strongest performing markets at the moment remain the north of England, as well as Scotland and Wales. However, Savills also points towards a faster recovery taking place in London, as the economic outlook improves, after it has lagged behind the rest of the UK for some time.

The report hones in on each of the UK’s regions, while also noting that the UK property market as a whole is “in the late stages of a typical housing market cycle”. But it offers an interesting insight into how the more affordable property markets can often show the most resilience.

For example, between now and 2028, the top-performing regions in terms of house price growth are predicted to be the north east with 21.4% cumulative growth, the north west with 20.2% cumulative growth, and Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands, both with 20.2% cumulative growth.

Discover our Mortgage Broker services

These figures are all comfortably above the average level of growth for UK house prices, and far surpass London’s prediction of a 13.9% total house price rise over the five-year period.

The report notes: “In 2024, further modest price falls will be driven by stretched affordability across all regions, though slightly more so in London and the South East where buyers continue to need to accumulate much bigger deposits and borrow more relative to their income than the national average.

“Once the Bank of England begins to cut the base rate in the second half of 2024, we expect affordability to ease with every region seeing improving conditions compared to 2023. The more affordable markets in the North, where mortgaged buyers are under less strain, should see the most recovery initially.”

By Eleanor Harvey

Source: Buy Association